In short, some people think yes, some people think no. I happen to believe that the iPhone won’t be sold for $199 for another couple years, it is still really new and the amount of money it costs to product the iPhone means that selling it for $199 doesn’t really make sense, especially since Apple has become to accustomed to selling hardware at a profit through the sales of the iPod and all of their computers.
I know that AT&T could subsidize the iPhone but it just doesn’t seem likely to me, especially since we already know that AT&T is giving Apple part of the revenue from the iPhone service.
I would probably buy the 3G iPhone if I could get it for $199 but it just doesn’t seem very likely.